Time has flown by like water and another year is about to end. Although the expected big bull rally did not happen, it has been a pretty good year for the crypto market. In the past year, the value of Bitcoin has increased by 92% and the value of Ethereum has increased by 538%. Hive, on the other hand, is about to close the year with a legendary 1500% increase in value. Will it be possible for the above-mentioned coins to maintain this performance in 2022?
Since Bitcoin's price history goes back many years, it is relatively easy to speculate about it. The trendline below, which largely explains Bitcoin's price action, indicates that the price of Bitcoin could reach $89,000 by the end of 2022.
When we make the y-axis of the graph containing the model logarithmic, the explanatory power is seen clearly.
What events can happen that will make the Bitcoin price reach 89,000 USD in 2022? Spot EFT may finally be approved and rolled out in the US. After El Salvador, other countries may recognize Bitcoin as a legal tender. Besides Tesla, other large companies may start holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Central banks, pension funds, government-owned wealth funds can start investing in Bitcoin.
Ethereum, which has performed very well this year, may reach $ 9500 by the end of 2022 according to the following exponential regression model.
As seen in the logarithmic scale chart below, Ethereum moved quite well with its historical price trend in 2021. It will not be a surprise if this situation continues in 2022.
What developments can bring the price of Ethereum to $ 9500 in 2022? Some of the investment scenarios I mentioned for Bitcoin may also apply to Ethereum. The transition to the proof-of-stake consensus algorithm, which is expected in the first quarter of the year, will support Ethereum's price in many ways. In addition to falling energy consumption and lower transaction costs, Ethereum's inflation will approach zero.
As we all know, this year has been terrific for Hive. Can the Hive sustain this momentum? Since Hive's price history is shorter and there is less Hive liquidity, the model that includes the price trend has less power to explain the data.
However, we can see a clear trend when we make the scale of the graph logarithmic. The model estimates the end-of-year 2022 price for Hive at $2.40.
What dynamics could affect the Hive price in 2022? After the Ragnarok and SPK airdrops that will take place after January 6, we can see that the price has decreased a little. On the other hand, these new projects will create synergy with Hive in the future. The recent popularity of the Play-to-Earn concept may further increase the interest in Splinterland. Few of the existing and new projects of the rapidly evolving Hive ecosystem could take the leap that Splinterlands has made in recent months. The rise in prices has made the Hive ecosystem more attractive to content creators. Hive requests from the new community members can also support the price.
We are entering 2022 with high hopes and expectations. On the other hand, we know that black swan incidents have increased in recent years. Perhaps the most appropriate attitude for 2022 will be cautious optimism.
Thank you for reading.
