What will be the price of Hive by 2025? In order to give a grounded answer to this question, it is necessary to look at historical price data. Although the history of Hive dates back to 2016, it would be appropriate to take March 2020 as the actual milestone. After all, the Hive community left Steem on this date and started to act independently. Thanks to the successful projects developed by the members of the community in the categories such as Media, Defi, NFT, and Play-to-Earn, Hive has reached a completely different position today.
Hive is still going through a price discovery period. Therefore, the prices have not yet become established. However, I will create a price model treating all the daily prices of the last 21 months equally.
Since the Hive price has risen above $1 in recent months, the current prices are not sufficiently reflected in the exponential average price on which the model is based. When we make the axis of the chart logarithmic, the difference with the current price seems more reasonable.
The $2 price target for the end of 2022 may not have seemed satisfactory. However, our 2025 prediction using this model produces very satisfactory results.
When we make the axis of the chart logarithmic, the picture seems better.
Our model indicates that if the Hive price trend continues, we will face a price of $15 by 2025. The model points out that Hive price will increase by an average of 2.4 times every year. Let's keep this coefficient in mind, it will appear again in this post.
Why did I use an exponential trend in the model? Would it be more appropriate if I used linear or polynomial models? Or does it make sense to use such models? The answer to these questions is in the chart below, which shows the total value of the crypto market on a logarithmic scale between 2013 and today. Exponential trends are the best to explain price and market caps in the crypto market.
Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
The chart above shows that the total value of the crypto market has increased by an average of 2.4 times per year since 2013. It is interesting that the trendline explains 8 years of data so well. For now, we do not have any indication that this trend will change. This trend, supported by long-term data, also confirms the 2.4-fold annual price increase forecast for Hive.
I think that the exponential price increases in the crypto market are due to the developments in the IT sector. As computing costs decrease, decentralized systems become more convenient for use-cases. Finally, I would like to share a graph of exponentially decreasing unit transaction costs in the IT sector.
Source: Wikipedia Commons, Data provided by Ray Kurzweil and updated by DFJ
Conclusion
Hive currently hosts the most played game in the crypto space. Hive users can benefit from dapps in areas such as social media, games, Defi, exchanges, NFT, gambling with near-zero transaction costs. Therefore, Hive has deserved the attention it has received from investors recently. The continuation of this interest will come as no surprise to anyone.
Although the analysis of historical data indicates that we can reach a Hive price of $ 15 in 2025, the effects of the rapid increase in the price of Hive have not yet been fully reflected in the model. If the Hive price can hold above $1.5, Hive's annual price increase multiplier could even reach 3. In such a case, we may encounter a price of around $ 50 in 2025.
Thank you for reading.
Image Source: https://unsplash.com/photos/fbKMKNVJjwo (A reference to The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy)