Since the beginning of the year, cryptocurrency prices have correlated with macroeconomic developments. Therefore, when analyzing the price of a particular cryptocurrency, it is necessary to consider the economic situation. In this context, I decided to make an analysis that takes into account the financial condition, recent price movements, and historical price data.
Macroeconomic Outlook
Yesterday, the Fed increased interest rates by 0.75 points, as expected. The market welcomed this increase as there were concerns that the increase would be 100 basis points. On the other hand, market players believe FED will increase interest rates with lower amounts in the upcoming meetings. For example, the rate hike expectation at the meeting to be held in September is 0.50. By the end of the year, interest rates are expected to reach 3.40 in the USA. Towards the middle of 2023, the FED is expected to start lowering the interest rate.
Inflation, which is the cause of the FED's interest rate hikes, has decreased in many commodities. Prices of precious metals and agricultural products have slumped in the past month, with many of them at last fall's levels. There is also a pullback in oil, at least after the $120 peak. The biggest problem is the natural gas prices, which continue to increase.
I recently learned from an article by @geekgirl that an application called truflation monitors inflation in the USA in real-time. The app's data shows that inflation in the US is higher than announced. On the other hand, as seen in the chart below, inflation decreased by 1 percent in the last month.
Pricing after last night's rate announcement shows investors believe the worst is over on the macroeconomic front. The Nasdaq 100 index, which has a high correlation with crypto, has been in an upward trend consisting of higher lows and higher highs since June 16. The uptrend will become more evident if the 12.700 level is exceeded in the Nasdaq 100.
Hive Price Model
If we leave the Steemit era aside, Hive has a price history of 2.5 years. Although 2.5 years seems like a short time, it includes two bears and a bull market. It is possible to create a trend over 854 daily closing prices, which form the price history of Hive. The trend in question includes an exponential price movement due to the nature of the crypto market.
The Hive price pattern shows that the Hive price should be just over $1 these days. It points to a price target of $1.5 for the end of the year. When we make the y-axis of the Hive price model logarithmic, we can see the model's fit with the Hive price trend.
Hive Technical Analysis
We know that prices can be realized well above or below the levels indicated by the long-term price patterns. It would be appropriate to use technical analysis indicators to predict the short-term course of prices.
The daily chart below shows the last 1-year development of the Hive price. The green line on the chart shows the 200-day average. The fact that we are below this average indicates that the price is still in a downtrend.
The orange horizontal line on the chart is located at 80 cents. After falling below 80 cents in the first week of May, sales became more evident. The orange line, which shows the downtrend of prices, seems to have been broken on the upside in the last three days. If the price goes above 80 cents in the coming weeks, we can say that Hive has entered an upward trend again. On the other hand, the price can bounce back from the 200-day average and regress to 50 cents.
Almost all opinion leaders of the crypto market are waiting for a final move downside. On the other hand, we should take the possibility of a sharp and uninterrupted rise into account, which will put those who do not fill their pockets with crypto in a problematic situation.
When we look at the price view of Hive via the 4-hour chart, we see more clearly that the trend line has been broken to the upside. In addition, the 200-day average has been surpassed on the 4-hour chart.
Conclusion
Hive's price movements are mostly in line with the market. Therefore, the course of [inflation] and the interest decisions to be taken by the central banks will impact the Hive price.
Will we get some surprising news at Hive Fest? When exactly will the next Hive hard fork occur, and will the process be managed as successfully as the previous ones? The answers to these questions can determine when the Hive price will rise above 80 cents.
By the end of the year, significant progress will have been made in projects such as Spk.Network, Ragnarok, PsyberX, Project Blank, Avalanche version of Polycub. In addition, many innovations will be implemented on the Splinterlands front.
In this context, I think the price of Hive may be between 80 cents and 1 dollar at the end of the year. If things improve on the macroeconomic front in the first half of 2023, the crypto market may start to move with its dynamics again. In this period, the price of Hive may exceed 2 dollars with the contribution of the projects I mentioned above.
The opinions I have stated above are not investment advice. Please do your own research.
Thank you for reading.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta