The chart above shows the course of the Hive price from the beginning. Details aside, there are two flats and one peak on the chart. And the Hive price is nearly where it started. Flats indicate bear markets, and the peak indicates the 2021 bull market.
While the price was 20 cents on average in the previous bear market, it is 40 cents on average in the current bear market. Considering the distance Hive has covered in the last three years, shouldn't the price have increased even more? We must consider that interest rates, which were close to zero in the previous bear market, are now in the 4-5% band.
Another noteworthy point in the chart is that the Hive price has hovered around 40 cents since June last year. Hive did not accompany the increase in Bitcoin and Ethereum in the previous weeks. The Hive is not alone in this. There is a similar situation with other altcoins.
It was a prediction emphasized by analysts that Bitcoin would rise first as we exit the bear market. Because at the end of the previous bear market, Bitcoin rose first, and altcoins followed it after about six months. We see a similar scenario taking place. Bitcoin and partially Ethereum seem to be more robust than others.
Will Bitcoin continue to rise? The answer to this question depends on interest rates. The market has a consensus that the FED will increase by 25 basis points at its meeting on May 5. Another view that has come to the fore is that the rate hike on May 5 will be the last and that the FED will halt after this increase. Until recently, some economists claimed that the interest rate could rise to 6% and above. An important uncertainty will likely be disappearing in the coming weeks.
If the FED ends the rate hike cycle on May 5, Bitcoin will cross the resistance zone in the 29k-32k range and head towards the next resistance, 40K USD. In this case, we may also see some price increases in Hive. However, this increase will not create momentum for the Hive price to permanently exceed the 50-cent region.
The prominent rise in Hive will likely occur towards the end of summer because games such as Soulkeep and Genesis League Goals will be activated in June and later. Also, during this period, the main version of the Splinterlands Land project will be released. On the other hand, games such as Golem Overlord, Terracore, and Serfdom & Sorcery, which have appeared recently, can also support the Hive price.
TL;DR
Crypto prices correlate with other risky assets and the Hive with the crypto market. The Fed is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle. Therefore, we have recently witnessed price increases in Nasdaq stocks and Bitcoin. Altcoins still need to accompany the price increase in Bitcoin. As confidence in the market increases, Bitcoin investors will show interest in altcoins.
I predict the significant price increase in Hive will occur towards the end of summer. Because in this period, the macroeconomic outlook will become more apparent, and there will be a transition from Bitcoin to altcoins. In addition, three crucial Splinterlands games (Soulkeep, Genesis League Goals, Splinterlands Land) will be active during the summer months.
Since Bitcoin will rise first, why aren't we investing in Bitcoin now? The answer to this question is that prices can rise anytime in the Hive ecosystem. Last summer, I increased my investments in the Hive ecosystem. So far, prices have remained flat. I want to take advantage of a possible price increase because the abovementioned scenario is not guaranteed.
We're finally coming to the end of the boring bear market. I miss the exuberant days of the crypto market.
Thank you for reading.
P.S. I am not a financial advisor. Please do your own research.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
